Wild Moves in the Markets: Bear Grip Remains Despite Oversold Rally
📉📈🔥 #MarketVolatility #SPX #VIX

Since last Friday, markets have been on an emotional rollercoaster. Volatility is back—with a vengeance.
$SPX sank to the 4900 level and found support there for 3 straight days (April 7–9). This matches support from the April 2024 pullback—but the sell-off this time was much sharper.

Then came the spark:
A late-day tariff tweet from President Trump sent the market soaring on April 9—one of the biggest up days in history.
💬 “Massive tariff changes coming. America first.”
Instantly, traders bought the dip… and then some.

But here’s the thing: history warns us not to trust these monster up days in isolation. The 2008 financial crisis gave us several such rallies—yet the market still fell further.

And now, there’s buzz:
🧐 Talk of a possible SEC inquiry into suspicious options activity just before the tariff announcement is gaining steam. If true, it raises questions about insider trading ahead of a high-volatility news cycle.
#SECWatch #MarketIntegrity

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Technical Breakdown
• The 20-day MA is falling—currently around 5540. Expect resistance there.
• The 200-day MA near 5750 is also sloping down.
• A breakout above 5800 would be technically bullish and force a reassessment.

Until then, this remains a classic oversold rally within a bearish trend.
🔄 #TechnicalLevels #MarketWatch

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Sentiment Snapshot
• Equity-only put-call ratios just hit new relative highs = active sell signals.
• Weighted ratio rolled over for a day, but no confirmed buy yet.
• Breadth? Still terrible. One 90% up day isn’t enough to turn it around.
#BreadthIndicators #ContrarianSignal

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Volatility Update
• $VIX soared above 60 on April 7 and stayed elevated = confirmed spike peak buy signal (valid for 22 trading days).
• But the longer-term $VIX trend remains bearish, and won’t flip unless $VIX drops below 19.50 for two consecutive closes.
⚠️ #Volatility #VIX

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Bottom Line:
The bear case remains intact—but it’s being tested.
• ✅ Only one confirmed buy signal ($VIX spike).
• 🔁 Roll deep ITM options for credits.
• ⛔ Don’t chase the rip—wait for breadth + sentiment confirmation.
• 🧠 Keep an eye on regulatory chatter—the story may not be over yet.

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#SP500 #MacroView #MarketUpdate #OptionsStrategy #VolatilitySpike #TrumpTariffs #SECInquiry #RiskRadar #InvestmentStrategy #FinancialMarkets #TechnicalAnalysis