TLT Short Put — Sep 18, 2026
Trade Setup
Current Stock Price
$82.25
Entry Price
$39.50
Target Price
$19.75
Stop Loss
$79.00
Expiration
Sep 18, 2026
Suggested Contracts
1
Strike Details
Sell 78P
Risk / Reward
Max Loss
$7760.50
Max Profit
$39.50
Analysis
TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) presents a short put opportunity with elevated implied volatility. IV Rank 51. IV 1145.0% trades 423.0pp above 30-day HV (722.0%). This setup favors net premium sellers.
Sell the $78 put for $0.40 credit. Naked single-leg exposure; collect premium from time decay if TLT stays above the strike. Underlying ~$82.25, 49 DTE. Max profit $40 per contract, max loss $7761, 0.5% return on risk, 83% POP. Breakeven at $77.61.
Management: take profit at ~50% of max profit ($20). Cut at 2x credit ($79 loss). If short strike is breached with > 14 DTE, consider rolling out for a credit. Close before expiration week to avoid gamma risk.
Setup Instructions
Underlying: TLT @ ~$82.25 Expiration: Sep 18, 2026 (49 DTE) Net credit (entry): ~$39.50 per spread Legs:
- Sell TLT Sep 18, 2026 $78 Put (delta -0.17, mid $0.40)
Use limit orders at the mid or slightly worse. Verify bid-ask spread (currently ~2.5% of mid) before sending.
Management Plan
Take profit at 50% of max profit ($20). Cut loss if position reaches 2x credit received ($79 loss). Roll if tested with > 14 DTE remaining.