CIFR Bull Put Credit Spread — 2026-11-20

CIFR (Cipher Digital Inc. - Common Stock) shows bullish unusual options activity: $90K of buyer-initiated unusual call flow (100% call-dominant) detected across near-term expirations, with a peak vol/OI ratio of 8.3x on the 8.5 call. We fade this by SELLING premium on the other side: the trade profits from time decay as long as CIFR stays above $6.5 through expiration. IV rank is 76 (elevated) — rather than sell naked premium at this IV, this is defined as a bull put credit spread (short $6.5 / long $6) so max loss is capped. Sell the $6.5 / buy the $6 put bull put credit spread expiring 2026-11-20 (21 DTE) for a net credit of $0.18 ($18 per spread). Breakeven at $6.33; net delta 0.08. NOTE: earnings (2026-11-02) fall inside the trade window — the IV crush after the print helps a premium seller, but the gap risk is real, so this is structured as a defined-risk spread and not a naked short.

Underlying: CIFR @ ~$7.28 | 2026-11-20 (21 DTE) | Net credit (entry): ~$18 per spread. Use limit orders at the mid or slightly better.

ENTRY: Sell the $6.5 / buy the $6 put credit spread expiring 2026-11-20 (21 DTE) as ONE order at a LIMIT of the mid or better — target credit $18 on a $0.5 -wide spread. IV rank 76 is elevated — premium is rich, a good backdrop to SELL; any vol contraction adds to the win. Don't leg in. Gamma: dealer gamma is roughly neutral — no pin edge either way; put wall (support) at $7; call wall (resistance) at $9. | TAKE PROFIT: Buy the spread back to LOCK IN gains at ~50% of the $18 max credit (close near $9 remaining). Also close on TIME: exit around 21 DTE regardless of P&L to sidestep the late-cycle gamma/pin risk near CIFR's short strike(s) — currently 21 DTE, so plan the exit 0 day(s) out. Defined risk — max loss $33, so let it run to ~50% rather than scalping tiny. | IF TESTED: If CIFR tests the $6.5 short put (delta ~0.30) or the loss reaches ~$35 (≈2× credit), roll the WHOLE spread DOWN and OUT ~7–14 days for a net credit — the lone-vertical play is roll-down-and-out or close (there's no untested side to roll in until you add a call spread). Treat a close below the $7 put wall as the hard trigger to act (the pin support has failed). If price knifes past the $6 long put, the spread is at/near max loss ($33) — take it rather than hoping. Breakeven $6.33. EARNINGS: a report (2026-11-02) falls inside this trade — the post-print IV crush helps a seller, but the gap can jump a short strike, so do NOT add size into the event and be ready to take the defined-risk loss if it gaps through. | MAXIMIZE: Winning cleanly above $6.5? Let theta close it toward 50%. To improve it, roll the spread UP toward the money in the next cycle for a fatter credit once most of this credit is banked, or add a bear call spread above the market to convert into an iron condor and double the premium if the flow turns two-sided.