CMG Broken-Wing Bull Put — 2026-10-30

CMG (Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. Common Stock): $484K of buyer-initiated unusual call flow (100% call-dominant), IV rank 77 (elevated). Our gamma model reads CMG in a NEGATIVE-gamma regime (net GEX 0.1M, flip 33.57) — dealers are short gamma and amplify moves, so this is defined-risk only and leans with the flow. Structured as a Broken-Wing Bull Put (sell $32P / buy $30P) expiring 2026-10-30 (22 DTE) — negative-gamma (trend/gap risk) → defined-risk broken-wing leaning with flow. Net credit $71, max loss $130 (defined risk). Breakevens $31.30.

Underlying: CMG @ ~$32.97 | 2026-10-30 (22 DTE) | Net credit (entry): ~$71 per spread. Use limit orders at the mid or slightly better.

ENTRY: Put on the broken-wing put spread: sell the $32 put, buy the further-OTM $30 put with a WIDER gap on the far wing, expiring 2026-10-30 (22 DTE), as one order at a LIMIT of the mid or better — target net credit $71. IV rank 77 is elevated — premium is rich, a good backdrop to SELL; any vol contraction adds to the win. The skew removes upside risk while collecting a credit; the downside gap is the residual max loss ($130). | TAKE PROFIT: Buy it back to LOCK IN gains at ~50% of the $71 credit. Also close on TIME: exit around 21 DTE regardless of P&L to sidestep the late-cycle gamma/pin risk near CMG's short strike(s) — currently 22 DTE, so plan the exit 1 day(s) out. Above $32 the whole credit is yours — take profits, don't carry the tail into expiration. Breakeven $31.30. | IF TESTED: The risk is a hard drop into the wide wing. When CMG tests the $32 short put (delta ~0.30) or loss ≈$142, roll the structure DOWN and OUT ~7–14 days for a credit, or buy an extra long put to square the wing back into a symmetric (fully defined) spread. Treat a close below the $32 put wall as the hard trigger to act (the pin support has failed). dealer gamma is NEGATIVE (vol-amplifying) — moves accelerate here, so defend one trigger EARLIER than usual and don't wait for the strike to go in-the-money; put wall (support) at $32; call wall (resistance) at $34. If price reaches the $30 wing, you're at max loss ($130) — take it. EARNINGS: a report (2026-10-28) falls inside this trade — the post-print IV crush helps a seller, but the gap can jump a short strike, so do NOT add size into the event and be ready to take the defined-risk loss if it gaps through. | MAXIMIZE: Holding above $32? Let theta collect the full credit. Once most is banked, roll up toward the money next cycle for a richer credit, or convert into an iron condor by adding a call spread if the flow turns two-sided.