CVX Iron Condor — 2026-11-13

CVX (Chevron Corporation Common Stock): options flow was balanced/mixed, IV rank 65 (elevated). Our gamma model reads CVX in a POSITIVE-gamma regime (net GEX 24.5M, flip 227.54) — dealers are long gamma and suppress realized vol, so price tends to pin/mean-revert between the $225 put wall (support) and $230 call wall (resistance). Structured as a Iron Condor (sell $225P / buy $222.5P / sell $230C / buy $232.5C) expiring 2026-11-13 (17 DTE) — earnings 2026-10-30 in window → forced iron condor over naked strangle. Net credit $193, max loss $57 (defined risk). Breakevens $223.08 and $231.93.

Underlying: CVX @ ~$227.90 | 2026-11-13 (17 DTE) | Net credit (entry): ~$193 per condor/fly. Use limit orders at the mid or slightly better.

ENTRY: Sell the $225/$222.5 put spread AND the $230/$232.5 call spread as ONE iron condor order, expiring 2026-11-13 (17 DTE), at a LIMIT of the mid or better — target credit $193. IV rank 65 is elevated — premium is rich, a good backdrop to SELL; any vol contraction adds to the win. Ideal when flow is two-sided/low-conviction and IV is rich. Anchor the short strikes just OUTSIDE the $225 put wall / $230 call wall so both walls sit between your shorts. | TAKE PROFIT: Buy the condor back to LOCK IN gains at ~50% of the $193 max credit (close near $97 remaining) — condors rarely pay to hold for the last dimes. Also close on TIME: exit around 21 DTE regardless of P&L to sidestep the late-cycle gamma/pin risk near CVX's short strike(s) — currently 17 DTE, so plan the exit 0 day(s) out. Profit zone is $223.08–$231.93; both breakevens must hold. | IF TESTED: Defend ONE side at a time. When either short is tested (delta ~0.30) or a side's loss ≈$386, ROLL THE UNTESTED SIDE closer to price to collect more credit and re-center (e.g. if CVX rallies into the $230 call, roll the $225 put up toward the money). If price keeps running, roll the TESTED spread out ~7–14 days for a credit, or go INVERTED (roll the tested short past the other short) as a last resort. dealer gamma is POSITIVE (vol-suppressing) — spot tends to pin/mean-revert, so a briefly-tested strike often reverts; don't over-adjust on the first touch; put wall (support) at $225; call wall (resistance) at $230. Treat a close above the $230 call wall as the hard trigger to act (the resistance magnet has broken) on the upside; Treat a close below the $225 put wall as the hard trigger to act (the pin support has failed) on the downside. If a wing goes fully in-the-money, that side is at max loss ($57) — take it and keep the winning side. EARNINGS: a report (2026-10-30) falls inside this trade — the post-print IV crush helps a seller, but the gap can jump a short strike, so do NOT add size into the event and be ready to take the defined-risk loss if it gaps through. | MAXIMIZE: If CVX sits mid-range and both sides decay, roll the nearer (winning) short in toward price to harvest extra premium and tighten the tent, or once ~50% is captured close the profitable side and let the other run. Extend duration only after most credit is banked.