EWZ Iron Butterfly — 2026-09-18

EWZ (iShares MSCI Brazil ETF): $1192K of buyer-initiated unusual call flow (100% call-dominant), IV rank 59 (elevated). Our gamma model reads EWZ in a POSITIVE-gamma regime (net GEX 29.6M, flip —) — dealers are long gamma and suppress realized vol, so price tends to pin/mean-revert between the $37 put wall (support) and $38 call wall (resistance). Structured as a Iron Butterfly (sell $38P / buy $37.5P / sell $38C / buy $38.5C) expiring 2026-09-18 (16 DTE) — positive-gamma pin at wall + rich IV → iron fly at the pin. Net credit $47, max loss $3 (defined risk). Breakevens $37.53 and $38.47.

Underlying: EWZ @ ~$37.99 | 2026-09-18 (16 DTE) | Net credit (entry): ~$47 per condor/fly. Use limit orders at the mid or slightly better.

ENTRY: Sell the $38 put AND $38 call (the body) and buy the $37.5 put / $38.5 call wings, expiring 2026-09-18 (16 DTE), as one order at a LIMIT of the mid or better — target credit $47. IV rank 59 is moderate — credit is workable but define risk and don't oversize. Best when spot is PINNED at $38 in a positive-gamma regime. Gamma pin is strong (pin strength 0.60) — anchor the $38 body at the pin so spot is magnetized to your max-profit point. | TAKE PROFIT: Buy the fly back to LOCK IN gains at ~25–40% of the $47 max credit — a fly's max profit needs a pin-perfect expiration, so don't be greedy; take the middle of the tent. Also close on TIME: exit around 21 DTE regardless of P&L to sidestep the late-cycle gamma/pin risk near EWZ's short strike(s) — currently 16 DTE, so plan the exit 0 day(s) out. Profit zone $37.53–$38.47, peak at $38. | IF TESTED: As spot drifts off the $38 body, roll the UNTESTED side toward price to re-center the fly and collect more credit; if a short is tested (delta ~0.30) or loss ≈$94, roll the whole fly in the direction of the move for a credit or take the defined stop. Treat a close below the $37 put wall as the hard trigger to act (the pin support has failed); Treat a close above the $38 call wall as the hard trigger to act (the resistance magnet has broken). A wing fully in-the-money = max loss ($3); take it. | MAXIMIZE: If EWZ sits right at $38, let theta rip toward the pin — this is where the fly pays most. Bank it around 25–40% rather than chasing the last of the tent; re-center into the next cycle if the pin holds.