EWZ Iron Butterfly — 2026-10-23

EWZ (iShares MSCI Brazil ETF): $5756K of buyer-initiated unusual call flow (100% call-dominant), IV rank 65 (elevated). Our gamma model reads EWZ in a POSITIVE-gamma regime (net GEX 10.2M, flip —) — dealers are long gamma and suppress realized vol, so price tends to pin/mean-revert between the $42 put wall (support) and $43 call wall (resistance). Structured as a Iron Butterfly (sell $43P / buy $42.5P / sell $43C / buy $43.5C) expiring 2026-10-23 (14 DTE) — positive-gamma pin at wall + rich IV → iron fly at the pin. Net credit $47, max loss $4 (defined risk). Breakevens $42.54 and $43.47.

Underlying: EWZ @ ~$43.34 | 2026-10-23 (14 DTE) | Net credit (entry): ~$47 per condor/fly. Use limit orders at the mid or slightly better.

ENTRY: Sell the $43 put AND $43 call (the body) and buy the $42.5 put / $43.5 call wings, expiring 2026-10-23 (14 DTE), as one order at a LIMIT of the mid or better — target credit $47. IV rank 65 is elevated — premium is rich, a good backdrop to SELL; any vol contraction adds to the win. Best when spot is PINNED at $43 in a positive-gamma regime. Gamma pin is strong (pin strength 0.41) — anchor the $43 body at the pin so spot is magnetized to your max-profit point. | TAKE PROFIT: Buy the fly back to LOCK IN gains at ~25–40% of the $47 max credit — a fly's max profit needs a pin-perfect expiration, so don't be greedy; take the middle of the tent. Also close on TIME: exit around 21 DTE regardless of P&L to sidestep the late-cycle gamma/pin risk near EWZ's short strike(s) — currently 14 DTE, so plan the exit 0 day(s) out. Profit zone $42.54–$43.47, peak at $43. | IF TESTED: As spot drifts off the $43 body, roll the UNTESTED side toward price to re-center the fly and collect more credit; if a short is tested (delta ~0.30) or loss ≈$94, roll the whole fly in the direction of the move for a credit or take the defined stop. Treat a close below the $42 put wall as the hard trigger to act (the pin support has failed); Treat a close above the $43 call wall as the hard trigger to act (the resistance magnet has broken). A wing fully in-the-money = max loss ($4); take it. | MAXIMIZE: If EWZ sits right at $43, let theta rip toward the pin — this is where the fly pays most. Bank it around 25–40% rather than chasing the last of the tent; re-center into the next cycle if the pin holds.