IBIT Broken-Wing Bear Call — 2026-09-30

IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust): $345K of buyer-initiated unusual put flow (100% put-dominant), IV rank 28 (low). Our gamma model reads IBIT in a NEGATIVE-gamma regime (net GEX -1.1M, flip —) — dealers are short gamma and amplify moves, so this is defined-risk only and leans with the flow. Structured as a Broken-Wing Bear Call (sell $44C / buy $45C) expiring 2026-09-30 (15 DTE) — negative-gamma (trend/gap risk) → defined-risk broken-wing leaning with flow. Net credit $31, max loss $69 (defined risk). Breakevens $44.32.

Underlying: IBIT @ ~$42.96 | 2026-09-30 (15 DTE) | Net credit (entry): ~$31 per spread. Use limit orders at the mid or slightly better.

ENTRY: Put on the broken-wing call spread: sell the $44 call, buy the further-OTM $45 call with a WIDER gap on the far wing, expiring 2026-09-30 (15 DTE), as one order at a LIMIT of the mid or better — target net credit $31. IV rank 28 is low — premium is thin, so keep size small and lean on a defined-risk structure. The skew removes downside risk while collecting a credit; the upside gap is the residual max loss ($69). | TAKE PROFIT: Buy it back to LOCK IN gains at ~50% of the $31 credit. Also close on TIME: exit around 21 DTE regardless of P&L to sidestep the late-cycle gamma/pin risk near IBIT's short strike(s) — currently 15 DTE, so plan the exit 0 day(s) out. Below $44 the whole credit is yours — take profits, don't carry the tail. Breakeven $44.32. | IF TESTED: The risk is a sharp rally into the wide wing. When IBIT tests the $44 short call (delta ~0.30) or loss ≈$62, roll the structure UP and OUT ~7–14 days for a credit, or buy an extra long call to square the wing into a symmetric (fully defined) spread. Treat a close above the $44 call wall as the hard trigger to act (the resistance magnet has broken). dealer gamma is NEGATIVE (vol-amplifying) — moves accelerate here, so defend one trigger EARLIER than usual and don't wait for the strike to go in-the-money; put wall (support) at $41.5; call wall (resistance) at $44. If price reaches the $45 wing, you're at max loss ($69) — take it. | MAXIMIZE: Holding below $44? Let theta collect the full credit. Once most is banked, roll down toward the money next cycle for a richer credit, or add a put spread to convert into an iron condor if flow turns two-sided.