IBIT Bull Put Credit Spread — 2026-09-18

IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust) shows bullish unusual options activity: $2363K of buyer-initiated unusual call flow (100% call-dominant) detected across near-term expirations, with a peak vol/OI ratio of 2.0x on the 46 call. We fade this by SELLING premium on the other side: the trade profits from time decay as long as IBIT stays above $44 through expiration. IV rank is 21 (low) — rather than sell naked premium at this IV, this is defined as a bull put credit spread (short $44 / long $43) so max loss is capped. Sell the $44 / buy the $43 put bull put credit spread expiring 2026-09-18 (14 DTE) for a net credit of $0.31 ($31 per spread). Breakeven at $43.70; net delta 0.11.

Underlying: IBIT @ ~$45.17 | 2026-09-18 (14 DTE) | Net credit (entry): ~$31 per spread. Use limit orders at the mid or slightly better.

ENTRY: Sell the $44 / buy the $43 put credit spread expiring 2026-09-18 (14 DTE) as ONE order at a LIMIT of the mid or better — target credit $31 on a $1 -wide spread. IV rank 21 is low — premium is thin, so keep size small and lean on a defined-risk structure. Don't leg in. Gamma: dealer gamma is POSITIVE (vol-suppressing) — spot tends to pin/mean-revert, so a briefly-tested strike often reverts; don't over-adjust on the first touch; put wall (support) at $45; call wall (resistance) at $45. | TAKE PROFIT: Buy the spread back to LOCK IN gains at ~50% of the $31 max credit (close near $15 remaining). Also close on TIME: exit around 21 DTE regardless of P&L to sidestep the late-cycle gamma/pin risk near IBIT's short strike(s) — currently 14 DTE, so plan the exit 0 day(s) out. Defined risk — max loss $70, so let it run to ~50% rather than scalping tiny. | IF TESTED: If IBIT tests the $44 short put (delta ~0.30) or the loss reaches ~$61 (≈2× credit), roll the WHOLE spread DOWN and OUT ~7–14 days for a net credit — the lone-vertical play is roll-down-and-out or close (there's no untested side to roll in until you add a call spread). Treat a close below the $45 put wall as the hard trigger to act (the pin support has failed). If price knifes past the $43 long put, the spread is at/near max loss ($70) — take it rather than hoping. Breakeven $43.70. | MAXIMIZE: Winning cleanly above $44? Let theta close it toward 50%. To improve it, roll the spread UP toward the money in the next cycle for a fatter credit once most of this credit is banked, or add a bear call spread above the market to convert into an iron condor and double the premium if the flow turns two-sided.