IBIT Bull Put Credit Spread — 2026-11-11

IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust) shows bullish unusual options activity: $0K of buyer-initiated unusual call flow (0% call-dominant) detected across near-term expirations, with a peak vol/OI ratio of 3.7x on the 47 call. We fade this by SELLING premium on the other side: the trade profits from time decay as long as IBIT stays above $44 through expiration. IV rank is 18 (low) — rather than sell naked premium at this IV, this is defined as a bull put credit spread (short $44 / long $43) so max loss is capped. Sell the $44 / buy the $43 put bull put credit spread expiring 2026-11-11 (14 DTE) for a net credit of $0.25 ($25 per spread). Breakeven at $43.75; net delta 0.09.

Underlying: IBIT @ ~$45.62 | 2026-11-11 (14 DTE) | Net credit (entry): ~$25 per spread. Use limit orders at the mid or slightly better.

ENTRY: Sell the $44 / buy the $43 put credit spread expiring 2026-11-11 (14 DTE) as ONE order at a LIMIT of the mid or better — target credit $25 on a $1 -wide spread. IV rank 18 is low — premium is thin, so keep size small and lean on a defined-risk structure. Don't leg in. Gamma: dealer gamma is roughly neutral — no pin edge either way; put wall (support) at $45; call wall (resistance) at $46. | TAKE PROFIT: Buy the spread back to LOCK IN gains at ~50% of the $25 max credit (close near $13 remaining). Also close on TIME: exit around 21 DTE regardless of P&L to sidestep the late-cycle gamma/pin risk near IBIT's short strike(s) — currently 14 DTE, so plan the exit 0 day(s) out. Defined risk — max loss $75, so let it run to ~50% rather than scalping tiny. | IF TESTED: If IBIT tests the $44 short put (delta ~0.30) or the loss reaches ~$50 (≈2× credit), roll the WHOLE spread DOWN and OUT ~7–14 days for a net credit — the lone-vertical play is roll-down-and-out or close (there's no untested side to roll in until you add a call spread). Treat a close below the $45 put wall as the hard trigger to act (the pin support has failed). If price knifes past the $43 long put, the spread is at/near max loss ($75) — take it rather than hoping. Breakeven $43.75. | MAXIMIZE: Winning cleanly above $44? Let theta close it toward 50%. To improve it, roll the spread UP toward the money in the next cycle for a fatter credit once most of this credit is banked, or add a bear call spread above the market to convert into an iron condor and double the premium if the flow turns two-sided.