MARA Bear Call Credit Spread — 2026-10-23
Trade Setup
Current Stock Price
$7.50
Entry Price
$7.50
Target Price
$3.75
Stop Loss
$42.50
Expiration
Oct 23, 2026
Suggested Contracts
1
Strike Details
Sell 10.5C / Buy 11C
Risk / Reward
Max Loss
$42.50
Max Profit
$7.50
Analysis
MARA (MARA Holdings, Inc. - Common Stock) shows bearish unusual options activity: $0K of buyer-initiated unusual call flow (0% call-dominant) detected across near-term expirations, with a peak vol/OI ratio of 1.4x on the 9.5 put. We fade this by SELLING premium on the other side: the trade profits from time decay as long as MARA stays below $10.5 through expiration. IV rank is -3 (low) — rather than sell naked premium at this IV, this is defined as a bear call credit spread (short $10.5 / long $11) so max loss is capped. Sell the $10.5 / buy the $11 call bear call credit spread expiring 2026-10-23 (14 DTE) for a net credit of $0.07 ($7 per spread). Breakeven at $10.57; net delta 0.09.
Setup Instructions
Underlying: MARA @ ~$9.59 | 2026-10-23 (14 DTE) | Net credit (entry): ~$8 per spread. Use limit orders at the mid or slightly better.
Management Plan
ENTRY: Sell the $10.5 / buy the $11 call credit spread expiring 2026-10-23 (14 DTE) as ONE order at a LIMIT of the mid or better — target credit $8 on a $0.5 -wide spread. IV rank -3 is low — premium is thin, so keep size small and lean on a defined-risk structure. Don't leg in. Gamma: dealer gamma is roughly neutral — no pin edge either way; put wall (support) at $9.5; call wall (resistance) at $10. | TAKE PROFIT: Buy the spread back to LOCK IN gains at ~50% of the $8 max credit (close near $4 remaining). Also close on TIME: exit around 21 DTE regardless of P&L to sidestep the late-cycle gamma/pin risk near MARA's short strike(s) — currently 14 DTE, so plan the exit 0 day(s) out. Defined risk — max loss $43. | IF TESTED: If MARA tests the $10.5 short call (delta ~0.30) or the loss reaches ~$15 (≈2× credit), roll the WHOLE spread UP and OUT ~7–14 days for a net credit. Treat a close above the $10 call wall as the hard trigger to act (the resistance magnet has broken). If price blows past the $11 long call, the spread is at/near max loss ($43) — take it. Breakeven $10.57. | MAXIMIZE: Winning below $10.5? Let it decay toward 50%. To improve, roll the spread DOWN toward the money next cycle for a richer credit once most credit is banked, or sell a bull put spread below the market to convert into an iron condor and collect premium from both sides.