MARA Bear Call Credit Spread — 2026-11-13

MARA (MARA Holdings, Inc. - Common Stock) shows bearish unusual options activity: $299K of buyer-initiated unusual put flow (100% put-dominant) detected across near-term expirations, with a peak vol/OI ratio of 10.1x on the 6 put. We fade this by SELLING premium on the other side: the trade profits from time decay as long as MARA stays below $7.5 through expiration. IV rank is 54 (moderate) — rather than sell naked premium at this IV, this is defined as a bear call credit spread (short $7.5 / long $8) so max loss is capped. Sell the $7.5 / buy the $8 call bear call credit spread expiring 2026-11-13 (14 DTE) for a net credit of $0.09 ($9 per spread). Breakeven at $7.59; net delta 0.09. NOTE: earnings (2026-11-03) fall inside the trade window — the IV crush after the print helps a premium seller, but the gap risk is real, so this is structured as a defined-risk spread and not a naked short.

Underlying: MARA @ ~$6.55 | 2026-11-13 (14 DTE) | Net credit (entry): ~$9 per spread. Use limit orders at the mid or slightly better.

ENTRY: Sell the $7.5 / buy the $8 call credit spread expiring 2026-11-13 (14 DTE) as ONE order at a LIMIT of the mid or better — target credit $9 on a $0.5 -wide spread. IV rank 54 is moderate — credit is workable but define risk and don't oversize. Don't leg in. Gamma: dealer gamma is roughly neutral — no pin edge either way; put wall (support) at $7; call wall (resistance) at $8. | TAKE PROFIT: Buy the spread back to LOCK IN gains at ~50% of the $9 max credit (close near $5 remaining). Also close on TIME: exit around 21 DTE regardless of P&L to sidestep the late-cycle gamma/pin risk near MARA's short strike(s) — currently 14 DTE, so plan the exit 0 day(s) out. Defined risk — max loss $41. | IF TESTED: If MARA tests the $7.5 short call (delta ~0.30) or the loss reaches ~$18 (≈2× credit), roll the WHOLE spread UP and OUT ~7–14 days for a net credit. Treat a close above the $8 call wall as the hard trigger to act (the resistance magnet has broken). If price blows past the $8 long call, the spread is at/near max loss ($41) — take it. Breakeven $7.59. EARNINGS: a report (2026-11-03) falls inside this trade — the post-print IV crush helps a seller, but the gap can jump a short strike, so do NOT add size into the event and be ready to take the defined-risk loss if it gaps through. | MAXIMIZE: Winning below $7.5? Let it decay toward 50%. To improve, roll the spread DOWN toward the money next cycle for a richer credit once most credit is banked, or sell a bull put spread below the market to convert into an iron condor and collect premium from both sides.