MARA Bull Put Credit Spread — 2026-10-02

MARA (MARA Holdings, Inc. - Common Stock) shows bullish unusual options activity: $0K of buyer-initiated unusual call flow (0% call-dominant) detected across near-term expirations, with a peak vol/OI ratio of 0.9x on the 13 call. We fade this by SELLING premium on the other side: the trade profits from time decay as long as MARA stays above $12.5 through expiration. IV rank is 13 (low) — rather than sell naked premium at this IV, this is defined as a bull put credit spread (short $12.5 / long $12) so max loss is capped. Sell the $12.5 / buy the $12 put bull put credit spread expiring 2026-10-02 (14 DTE) for a net credit of $0.18 ($18 per spread). Breakeven at $12.32; net delta 0.09.

Underlying: MARA @ ~$13.20 | 2026-10-02 (14 DTE) | Net credit (entry): ~$18 per spread. Use limit orders at the mid or slightly better.

ENTRY: Sell the $12.5 / buy the $12 put credit spread expiring 2026-10-02 (14 DTE) as ONE order at a LIMIT of the mid or better — target credit $18 on a $0.5 -wide spread. IV rank 13 is low — premium is thin, so keep size small and lean on a defined-risk structure. Don't leg in. Gamma: dealer gamma is roughly neutral — no pin edge either way; put wall (support) at $12; call wall (resistance) at $13.5. | TAKE PROFIT: Buy the spread back to LOCK IN gains at ~50% of the $18 max credit (close near $9 remaining). Also close on TIME: exit around 21 DTE regardless of P&L to sidestep the late-cycle gamma/pin risk near MARA's short strike(s) — currently 14 DTE, so plan the exit 0 day(s) out. Defined risk — max loss $33, so let it run to ~50% rather than scalping tiny. | IF TESTED: If MARA tests the $12.5 short put (delta ~0.30) or the loss reaches ~$35 (≈2× credit), roll the WHOLE spread DOWN and OUT ~7–14 days for a net credit — the lone-vertical play is roll-down-and-out or close (there's no untested side to roll in until you add a call spread). Treat a close below the $12 put wall as the hard trigger to act (the pin support has failed). If price knifes past the $12 long put, the spread is at/near max loss ($33) — take it rather than hoping. Breakeven $12.32. | MAXIMIZE: Winning cleanly above $12.5? Let theta close it toward 50%. To improve it, roll the spread UP toward the money in the next cycle for a fatter credit once most of this credit is banked, or add a bear call spread above the market to convert into an iron condor and double the premium if the flow turns two-sided.