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NVDABullish

NVDA Broken-Wing Bull Put — 2026-09-25

broken_wing_putMarket Signal

Trade Setup

Current Stock Price

$218.29

Entry Price

$178.00

Target Price

$89.00

Stop Loss

$322.00

Expiration

Sep 25, 2026

Suggested Contracts

1

Strike Details

Sell 217.5P / Buy 212.5P

Risk / Reward

Risk/Reward Ratio1.81:1
Risk: $322.00Reward: $178.00

Max Loss

$322.00

Max Profit

$178.00

Analysis

NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation - Common Stock): $9204K of buyer-initiated unusual call flow (100% call-dominant), IV rank 6 (low). Our gamma model reads NVDA in a NEGATIVE-gamma regime (net GEX 4.8M, flip 227.23) — dealers are short gamma and amplify moves, so this is defined-risk only and leans with the flow. Structured as a Broken-Wing Bull Put (sell $217.5P / buy $212.5P) expiring 2026-09-25 (14 DTE) — negative-gamma (trend/gap risk) → defined-risk broken-wing leaning with flow. Net credit $178, max loss $322 (defined risk). Breakevens $215.72.

Setup Instructions

Underlying: NVDA @ ~$219.08 | 2026-09-25 (14 DTE) | Net credit (entry): ~$178 per spread. Use limit orders at the mid or slightly better.

Management Plan

ENTRY: Put on the broken-wing put spread: sell the $217.5 put, buy the further-OTM $212.5 put with a WIDER gap on the far wing, expiring 2026-09-25 (14 DTE), as one order at a LIMIT of the mid or better — target net credit $178. IV rank 6 is low — premium is thin, so keep size small and lean on a defined-risk structure. The skew removes upside risk while collecting a credit; the downside gap is the residual max loss ($322). | TAKE PROFIT: Buy it back to LOCK IN gains at ~50% of the $178 credit. Also close on TIME: exit around 21 DTE regardless of P&L to sidestep the late-cycle gamma/pin risk near NVDA's short strike(s) — currently 14 DTE, so plan the exit 0 day(s) out. Above $217.5 the whole credit is yours — take profits, don't carry the tail into expiration. Breakeven $215.72. | IF TESTED: The risk is a hard drop into the wide wing. When NVDA tests the $217.5 short put (delta ~0.30) or loss ≈$356, roll the structure DOWN and OUT ~7–14 days for a credit, or buy an extra long put to square the wing back into a symmetric (fully defined) spread. Treat a close below the $220 put wall as the hard trigger to act (the pin support has failed). dealer gamma is NEGATIVE (vol-amplifying) — moves accelerate here, so defend one trigger EARLIER than usual and don't wait for the strike to go in-the-money; put wall (support) at $220; call wall (resistance) at $225. If price reaches the $212.5 wing, you're at max loss ($322) — take it. | MAXIMIZE: Holding above $217.5? Let theta collect the full credit. Once most is banked, roll up toward the money next cycle for a richer credit, or convert into an iron condor by adding a call spread if the flow turns two-sided.