NVDL Short Put — 2026-12-04

NVDL (GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF) shows bullish unusual options activity: $4046K of buyer-initiated unusual call flow (100% call-dominant) detected across near-term expirations, with a peak vol/OI ratio of 20280.0x on the 16 call. We fade this by SELLING premium on the other side: the trade profits from time decay as long as NVDL stays above $17 through expiration. IV rank is 96 (elevated) — rich enough that selling the naked short put collects a worthwhile credit for the risk. Sell the $17 put expiring 2026-12-04 (22 DTE) at mid $1.55 per share ($155 credit per contract). Breakeven at $15.45; net delta 0.34.

Underlying: NVDL @ ~$18.38 | 2026-12-04 (22 DTE) | Net credit (entry): ~$155 per contract. Use limit orders at the mid or slightly better.

ENTRY: Sell the $17 put expiring 2026-12-04 (22 DTE) at a LIMIT of the mid or better — target credit $155. IV rank 96 is elevated — premium is rich, a good backdrop to SELL; any vol contraction adds to the win. Enter with the short delta ~0.20–0.30; skip if the fill would be below mid. Gamma: dealer gamma is roughly neutral — no pin edge either way; put wall (support) at $17; call wall (resistance) at $20. | TAKE PROFIT: Buy the put back to LOCK IN gains at ~50% of the $155 credit (close near $78 of remaining value); on a fast IV crush take 25% quickly and redeploy. Also close on TIME: exit around 21 DTE regardless of P&L to sidestep the late-cycle gamma/pin risk near NVDL's short strike(s) — currently 22 DTE, so plan the exit 1 day(s) out. Never hold a naked put to expiration for pin/assignment risk. | IF TESTED: When the short-put delta reaches ~0.30 or the loss hits ~$310 (≈2× credit), roll the $17 put DOWN and OUT ~7–14 days for a net credit; if you can't roll for a credit, CONVERT to a put credit spread by buying a lower long put to cap the tail, or take the stop. Treat a close below the $17 put wall as the hard trigger to act (the pin support has failed). Breakeven is $15.45 — below it you're in the red. Size small: a naked put risks assignment down to $1,700 minus the credit. Undefined-risk structure — keep size small and honor the stop; do not let a naked tested strike run without a defined plan. | MAXIMIZE: If NVDL holds well above $17, let theta work; once ~50–75% of the credit is captured you can roll the SAME put UP toward the money in the next cycle to collect more premium, or simply bank the winner and redeploy the buying power.