OptionBigBull
Back to Trade Alerts
Expired
PFENeutral

PFE Iron Butterfly — 2026-11-06

iron_butterflyMarket Signal

Trade Setup

Current Stock Price

$49.00

Entry Price

$49.00

Target Price

$24.50

Stop Loss

$1.00

Expiration

Nov 6, 2026

Suggested Contracts

1

Strike Details

Sell 30P / Buy 29.5P / Sell 30C / Buy 30.5C

Risk / Reward

Risk/Reward Ratio0.02:1
Risk: $1.00Reward: $49.00

Max Loss

$1.00

Max Profit

$49.00

Analysis

PFE (Pfizer, Inc. Common Stock): $180K of buyer-initiated unusual put flow (55% put-dominant), IV rank 66 (elevated). Our gamma model reads PFE in a POSITIVE-gamma regime (net GEX 1.3M, flip 29.49) — dealers are long gamma and suppress realized vol, so price tends to pin/mean-revert between the $29 put wall (support) and $30 call wall (resistance). Structured as a Iron Butterfly (sell $30P / buy $29.5P / sell $30C / buy $30.5C) expiring 2026-11-06 (17 DTE) — positive-gamma pin at wall + rich IV → iron fly at the pin. Net credit $49, max loss $1 (defined risk). Breakevens $29.51 and $30.49.

Setup Instructions

Underlying: PFE @ ~$30.15 | 2026-11-06 (17 DTE) | Net credit (entry): ~$49 per condor/fly. Use limit orders at the mid or slightly better.

Management Plan

ENTRY: Sell the $30 put AND $30 call (the body) and buy the $29.5 put / $30.5 call wings, expiring 2026-11-06 (17 DTE), as one order at a LIMIT of the mid or better — target credit $49. IV rank 66 is elevated — premium is rich, a good backdrop to SELL; any vol contraction adds to the win. Best when spot is PINNED at $30 in a positive-gamma regime. Gamma pin is strong (pin strength 0.38) — anchor the $30 body at the pin so spot is magnetized to your max-profit point. | TAKE PROFIT: Buy the fly back to LOCK IN gains at ~25–40% of the $49 max credit — a fly's max profit needs a pin-perfect expiration, so don't be greedy; take the middle of the tent. Also close on TIME: exit around 21 DTE regardless of P&L to sidestep the late-cycle gamma/pin risk near PFE's short strike(s) — currently 17 DTE, so plan the exit 0 day(s) out. Profit zone $29.51–$30.49, peak at $30. | IF TESTED: As spot drifts off the $30 body, roll the UNTESTED side toward price to re-center the fly and collect more credit; if a short is tested (delta ~0.30) or loss ≈$98, roll the whole fly in the direction of the move for a credit or take the defined stop. Treat a close below the $29 put wall as the hard trigger to act (the pin support has failed); Treat a close above the $30 call wall as the hard trigger to act (the resistance magnet has broken). A wing fully in-the-money = max loss ($1); take it. EARNINGS: a report (2026-11-03) falls inside this trade — the post-print IV crush helps a seller, but the gap can jump a short strike, so do NOT add size into the event and be ready to take the defined-risk loss if it gaps through. | MAXIMIZE: If PFE sits right at $30, let theta rip toward the pin — this is where the fly pays most. Bank it around 25–40% rather than chasing the last of the tent; re-center into the next cycle if the pin holds.