TLT Broken-Wing Bull Put — 2026-10-02

TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF): $153K of buyer-initiated unusual call flow (100% call-dominant), IV rank 51 (moderate). Our gamma model reads TLT in a NEGATIVE-gamma regime (net GEX -4.8M, flip —) — dealers are short gamma and amplify moves, so this is defined-risk only and leans with the flow. Structured as a Broken-Wing Bull Put (sell $80P / buy $78P) expiring 2026-10-02 (17 DTE) — negative-gamma (trend/gap risk) → defined-risk broken-wing leaning with flow. Net credit $37, max loss $163 (defined risk). Breakevens $79.63.

Underlying: TLT @ ~$80.77 | 2026-10-02 (17 DTE) | Net credit (entry): ~$37 per spread. Use limit orders at the mid or slightly better.

ENTRY: Put on the broken-wing put spread: sell the $80 put, buy the further-OTM $78 put with a WIDER gap on the far wing, expiring 2026-10-02 (17 DTE), as one order at a LIMIT of the mid or better — target net credit $37. IV rank 51 is moderate — credit is workable but define risk and don't oversize. The skew removes upside risk while collecting a credit; the downside gap is the residual max loss ($163). | TAKE PROFIT: Buy it back to LOCK IN gains at ~50% of the $37 credit. Also close on TIME: exit around 21 DTE regardless of P&L to sidestep the late-cycle gamma/pin risk near TLT's short strike(s) — currently 17 DTE, so plan the exit 0 day(s) out. Above $80 the whole credit is yours — take profits, don't carry the tail into expiration. Breakeven $79.63. | IF TESTED: The risk is a hard drop into the wide wing. When TLT tests the $80 short put (delta ~0.30) or loss ≈$74, roll the structure DOWN and OUT ~7–14 days for a credit, or buy an extra long put to square the wing back into a symmetric (fully defined) spread. Treat a close below the $80 put wall as the hard trigger to act (the pin support has failed). dealer gamma is NEGATIVE (vol-amplifying) — moves accelerate here, so defend one trigger EARLIER than usual and don't wait for the strike to go in-the-money; put wall (support) at $80; call wall (resistance) at $82. If price reaches the $78 wing, you're at max loss ($163) — take it. | MAXIMIZE: Holding above $80? Let theta collect the full credit. Once most is banked, roll up toward the money next cycle for a richer credit, or convert into an iron condor by adding a call spread if the flow turns two-sided.