TLT Broken-Wing Bull Put — 2026-10-16

TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF): $302K of buyer-initiated unusual call flow (100% call-dominant), IV rank 90 (elevated). Our gamma model reads TLT in a NEGATIVE-gamma regime (net GEX -88.0M, flip —) — dealers are short gamma and amplify moves, so this is defined-risk only and leans with the flow. Structured as a Broken-Wing Bull Put (sell $77.5P / buy $76.5P) expiring 2026-10-16 (14 DTE) — negative-gamma (trend/gap risk) → defined-risk broken-wing leaning with flow. Net credit $37, max loss $63 (defined risk). Breakevens $77.13.

Underlying: TLT @ ~$77.55 | 2026-10-16 (14 DTE) | Net credit (entry): ~$37 per spread. Use limit orders at the mid or slightly better.

ENTRY: Put on the broken-wing put spread: sell the $77.5 put, buy the further-OTM $76.5 put with a WIDER gap on the far wing, expiring 2026-10-16 (14 DTE), as one order at a LIMIT of the mid or better — target net credit $37. IV rank 90 is elevated — premium is rich, a good backdrop to SELL; any vol contraction adds to the win. The skew removes upside risk while collecting a credit; the downside gap is the residual max loss ($63). | TAKE PROFIT: Buy it back to LOCK IN gains at ~50% of the $37 credit. Also close on TIME: exit around 21 DTE regardless of P&L to sidestep the late-cycle gamma/pin risk near TLT's short strike(s) — currently 14 DTE, so plan the exit 0 day(s) out. Above $77.5 the whole credit is yours — take profits, don't carry the tail into expiration. Breakeven $77.13. | IF TESTED: The risk is a hard drop into the wide wing. When TLT tests the $77.5 short put (delta ~0.30) or loss ≈$74, roll the structure DOWN and OUT ~7–14 days for a credit, or buy an extra long put to square the wing back into a symmetric (fully defined) spread. Treat a close below the $79 put wall as the hard trigger to act (the pin support has failed). dealer gamma is NEGATIVE (vol-amplifying) — moves accelerate here, so defend one trigger EARLIER than usual and don't wait for the strike to go in-the-money; put wall (support) at $79; call wall (resistance) at $79. If price reaches the $76.5 wing, you're at max loss ($63) — take it. | MAXIMIZE: Holding above $77.5? Let theta collect the full credit. Once most is banked, roll up toward the money next cycle for a richer credit, or convert into an iron condor by adding a call spread if the flow turns two-sided.