TLT Broken-Wing Bull Put — 2026-10-30

TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF): $2772K of buyer-initiated unusual call flow (100% call-dominant), IV rank 72 (elevated). Our gamma model reads TLT in a NEGATIVE-gamma regime (net GEX 111.4M, flip 80.65) — dealers are short gamma and amplify moves, so this is defined-risk only and leans with the flow. Structured as a Broken-Wing Bull Put (sell $79P / buy $78P) expiring 2026-10-30 (14 DTE) — negative-gamma (trend/gap risk) → defined-risk broken-wing leaning with flow. Net credit $23, max loss $78 (defined risk). Breakevens $78.78.

Underlying: TLT @ ~$80.04 | 2026-10-30 (14 DTE) | Net credit (entry): ~$23 per spread. Use limit orders at the mid or slightly better.

ENTRY: Put on the broken-wing put spread: sell the $79 put, buy the further-OTM $78 put with a WIDER gap on the far wing, expiring 2026-10-30 (14 DTE), as one order at a LIMIT of the mid or better — target net credit $23. IV rank 72 is elevated — premium is rich, a good backdrop to SELL; any vol contraction adds to the win. The skew removes upside risk while collecting a credit; the downside gap is the residual max loss ($78). | TAKE PROFIT: Buy it back to LOCK IN gains at ~50% of the $23 credit. Also close on TIME: exit around 21 DTE regardless of P&L to sidestep the late-cycle gamma/pin risk near TLT's short strike(s) — currently 14 DTE, so plan the exit 0 day(s) out. Above $79 the whole credit is yours — take profits, don't carry the tail into expiration. Breakeven $78.78. | IF TESTED: The risk is a hard drop into the wide wing. When TLT tests the $79 short put (delta ~0.30) or loss ≈$46, roll the structure DOWN and OUT ~7–14 days for a credit, or buy an extra long put to square the wing back into a symmetric (fully defined) spread. Treat a close below the $79 put wall as the hard trigger to act (the pin support has failed). dealer gamma is NEGATIVE (vol-amplifying) — moves accelerate here, so defend one trigger EARLIER than usual and don't wait for the strike to go in-the-money; put wall (support) at $79; call wall (resistance) at $81.5. If price reaches the $78 wing, you're at max loss ($78) — take it. | MAXIMIZE: Holding above $79? Let theta collect the full credit. Once most is banked, roll up toward the money next cycle for a richer credit, or convert into an iron condor by adding a call spread if the flow turns two-sided.