TLT Iron Butterfly — 2026-11-11

TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF): $387K of buyer-initiated unusual call flow (100% call-dominant), IV rank 49 (moderate). Our gamma model reads TLT in a POSITIVE-gamma regime (net GEX 75.6M, flip 79) — dealers are long gamma and suppress realized vol, so price tends to pin/mean-revert between the $80 put wall (support) and $81 call wall (resistance). Structured as a Iron Butterfly (sell $81P / buy $80P / sell $81C / buy $82C) expiring 2026-11-11 (14 DTE) — positive-gamma pin at wall + rich IV → iron fly at the pin. Net credit $81, max loss $20 (defined risk). Breakevens $80.19 and $81.81.

Underlying: TLT @ ~$81.43 | 2026-11-11 (14 DTE) | Net credit (entry): ~$81 per condor/fly. Use limit orders at the mid or slightly better.

ENTRY: Sell the $81 put AND $81 call (the body) and buy the $80 put / $82 call wings, expiring 2026-11-11 (14 DTE), as one order at a LIMIT of the mid or better — target credit $81. IV rank 49 is moderate — credit is workable but define risk and don't oversize. Best when spot is PINNED at $81 in a positive-gamma regime. Gamma pin is strong (pin strength 0.64) — anchor the $81 body at the pin so spot is magnetized to your max-profit point. | TAKE PROFIT: Buy the fly back to LOCK IN gains at ~25–40% of the $81 max credit — a fly's max profit needs a pin-perfect expiration, so don't be greedy; take the middle of the tent. Also close on TIME: exit around 21 DTE regardless of P&L to sidestep the late-cycle gamma/pin risk near TLT's short strike(s) — currently 14 DTE, so plan the exit 0 day(s) out. Profit zone $80.19–$81.81, peak at $81. | IF TESTED: As spot drifts off the $81 body, roll the UNTESTED side toward price to re-center the fly and collect more credit; if a short is tested (delta ~0.30) or loss ≈$162, roll the whole fly in the direction of the move for a credit or take the defined stop. Treat a close below the $80 put wall as the hard trigger to act (the pin support has failed); Treat a close above the $81 call wall as the hard trigger to act (the resistance magnet has broken). A wing fully in-the-money = max loss ($20); take it. | MAXIMIZE: If TLT sits right at $81, let theta rip toward the pin — this is where the fly pays most. Bank it around 25–40% rather than chasing the last of the tent; re-center into the next cycle if the pin holds.