XOM Short Put — 2026-09-18

XOM (ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation Common Stock) shows bullish unusual options activity: $171K of buyer-initiated unusual call flow (100% call-dominant) detected across near-term expirations, with a peak vol/OI ratio of 0.2x on the 170 call. We fade this by SELLING premium on the other side: the trade profits from time decay as long as XOM stays above $160 through expiration. IV rank is 55 (moderate) — rich enough that selling the naked short put collects a worthwhile credit for the risk. Sell the $160 put expiring 2026-09-18 (16 DTE) at mid $2.09 per share ($209 credit per contract). Breakeven at $157.91; net delta 0.33.

Underlying: XOM @ ~$163.79 | 2026-09-18 (16 DTE) | Net credit (entry): ~$209 per contract. Use limit orders at the mid or slightly better.

ENTRY: Sell the $160 put expiring 2026-09-18 (16 DTE) at a LIMIT of the mid or better — target credit $209. IV rank 55 is moderate — credit is workable but define risk and don't oversize. Enter with the short delta ~0.20–0.30; skip if the fill would be below mid. Gamma: dealer gamma is POSITIVE (vol-suppressing) — spot tends to pin/mean-revert, so a briefly-tested strike often reverts; don't over-adjust on the first touch; put wall (support) at $160; call wall (resistance) at $165. | TAKE PROFIT: Buy the put back to LOCK IN gains at ~50% of the $209 credit (close near $105 of remaining value); on a fast IV crush take 25% quickly and redeploy. Also close on TIME: exit around 21 DTE regardless of P&L to sidestep the late-cycle gamma/pin risk near XOM's short strike(s) — currently 16 DTE, so plan the exit 0 day(s) out. Never hold a naked put to expiration for pin/assignment risk. | IF TESTED: When the short-put delta reaches ~0.30 or the loss hits ~$418 (≈2× credit), roll the $160 put DOWN and OUT ~7–14 days for a net credit; if you can't roll for a credit, CONVERT to a put credit spread by buying a lower long put to cap the tail, or take the stop. Treat a close below the $160 put wall as the hard trigger to act (the pin support has failed). Breakeven is $157.91 — below it you're in the red. Size small: a naked put risks assignment down to $16,000 minus the credit. Undefined-risk structure — keep size small and honor the stop; do not let a naked tested strike run without a defined plan. | MAXIMIZE: If XOM holds well above $160, let theta work; once ~50–75% of the credit is captured you can roll the SAME put UP toward the money in the next cycle to collect more premium, or simply bank the winner and redeploy the buying power.