📈 MARKET SNAPSHOT: RALLY… OR JUST A RELIEF BOUNCE? 🤔

$SPX is up nearly +400 pts from Monday’s lows, but the trend still points south. Here’s what I’m watching:

🔻 Lower Highs & Lower Lows remain intact—classic down-trend anatomy.
🧱 Resistance ≈ 5500 (and the sagging 200-day MA). A decisive close > 5800 would be the first real “all-clear.”
🛡️ Support zones: 5100 (Mon. lows) ➡️ 4850-4950 (early-Apr. floor).

⚡ VOLATILITY CHECK
• 20-day HV = 50%—highest since Mar-Apr 2020.
• Wide modified Bollinger Bands = 🚨 heightened risk.
• $VIX “spike-peak” buy (Apr 7) still valid, but I’d tighten a stop to 34 instead of the distant 60.10.

📊 SENTIMENT & BREADTH
• Equity-only put/call ratios flirting with new highs → computer models = SELL bias.
• Breadth oscillators flashed fresh buys (2-day confirmation) ✔️ …but they’re short-term by nature.

🎯 PLAYBOOK

Maintain a core bearish stance until the chart says otherwise.

Trade confirmed signals tactically as they appear.

Roll deep ITM options to stay delta-aligned while harvesting theta.

💡 Bottom line: rallies inside a down-trend are powerful—and often deceptive. Manage risk first, opinions second. 🛑

#SPX #S&P500 #MarketRally #Volatility #TechnicalAnalysis #OptionsTrading #RiskManagement #FinanceLinkedIn