Despite the worsening internal indicators such as put-call ratios, breadth, and New Highs vs. New Lows, the $SPX has not significantly weakened and remains close to its all-time highs. The NASDAQ-100 ($NDX) and the Dow ($DJX) have already achieved new all-time highs but face resistance at current levels. A decisive breakout above 4800 by $SPX would be highly bullish. And SPX did breakout above 4800 on 1/19/2024 (lead by AI semi conductors $NVDA $AMD etc.) almost after 2 years. Are we starting new bull market ? We shall see after 1/31/2014 FOMC meeting. Market is already pricing in 4-5 rate cuts in 2024. Support is observed just below 4700 (early January lows) with stronger support at 4600. A close below 4550 (December’s lows) would be a very negative signal, potentially signaling the start of another bear market.

Equity-only put-call ratios are on the rise, indicating a bearish outlook for stocks. They need to roll over and begin declining to turn bullish. Market breadth remains mostly poor, with breadth oscillators on sell signals and descending into deeply oversold territory, especially the “stocks only” oscillator. Despite $SPX not declining significantly, there seems to be an internal correction in the market, which could become a bullish factor when buy signals are confirmed later.

$VIX, while still subdued, has probed up to touch its declining 200-day Moving Average but quickly fell back. The trend of $VIX buy signal remains intact. A shift to “spiking” mode in $VIX could be somewhat negative for stocks, leading to sharp falls, but eventually triggering a “spike peak” buy signal.

Considering seasonality, there is a general negative trend from the 8th to the 18th trading day of January, followed by a strong positive seasonality from the 18th trading day into early February.

In summary, a “core” bullish position is maintained due to the generally positive $SPX chart, with other confirmed signals being traded around that core position.

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