by Mahesh Kalbhor | Apr 26, 2025 | Weekly Update
📈 MARKET SNAPSHOT: RALLY… OR JUST A RELIEF BOUNCE? 🤔
$SPX is up nearly +400 pts from Monday’s lows, but the trend still points south. Here’s what I’m watching:
🔻 Lower Highs & Lower Lows remain intact—classic down-trend anatomy.
🧱 Resistance ≈ 5500 (and the sagging 200-day MA). A decisive close > 5800 would be the first real “all-clear.”
🛡️ Support zones: 5100 (Mon. lows) ➡️ 4850-4950 (early-Apr. floor).
⚡ VOLATILITY CHECK
• 20-day HV = 50%—highest since Mar-Apr 2020.
• Wide modified Bollinger Bands = 🚨 heightened risk.
• $VIX “spike-peak” buy (Apr 7) still valid, but I’d tighten a stop to 34 instead of the distant 60.10.
📊 SENTIMENT & BREADTH
• Equity-only put/call ratios flirting with new highs → computer models = SELL bias.
• Breadth oscillators flashed fresh buys (2-day confirmation) ✔️ …but they’re short-term by nature.
🎯 PLAYBOOK
Maintain a core bearish stance until the chart says otherwise.
Trade confirmed signals tactically as they appear.
Roll deep ITM options to stay delta-aligned while harvesting theta.
💡 Bottom line: rallies inside a down-trend are powerful—and often deceptive. Manage risk first, opinions second. 🛑
#SPX #S&P500 #MarketRally #Volatility #TechnicalAnalysis #OptionsTrading #RiskManagement #FinanceLinkedIn
by Mahesh Kalbhor | Apr 12, 2025 | Weekly Update
Why Trump Ignored a 20% Stock 📉 Drop but Surrendered to a 40 bps Bond Spike 📈
📉 Stocks crashed 💥 Trump stood firm.
📈 Bonds spiked—Trump backed down.
Why?
As President, Trump imposed tariffs to revive U.S. industry.
🇺🇸 America had deindustrialized—we build 5 chips a year. China? 1,800.
🛠️ Industrial capacity = national security.
But tariffs rattled markets.
To defend the move, Trump’s team said:
💬 “Only 10% own 88% of stocks. Trump cares about the other 90%.”
That held…until the bond market revolted.
🔺 Yields surged instead of falling.
💸 Deficits (trade + fiscal) shook investor confidence.
📉 Bonds are the foundation:
• Banks fund daily ops with them
• Corporates run payroll with them
The system was at risk of collapse.
– Jamie Dimon called Trump
– Trump delayed tariffs for 90 days
Lesson?
You can fight Wall Street.
But not the Bond Market.
#MacroView #Tariffs #Trump #BondMarket #Stocks #IndustrialPolicy #USChina #Geopolitics #Economy #Deficits #FinancialSystem #WallStreet vs #MainStreet
by Mahesh Kalbhor | Apr 12, 2025 | Weekly Update
Wild Moves in the Markets: Bear Grip Remains Despite Oversold Rally
📉📈🔥 #MarketVolatility #SPX #VIX
Since last Friday, markets have been on an emotional rollercoaster. Volatility is back—with a vengeance.
$SPX sank to the 4900 level and found support there for 3 straight days (April 7–9). This matches support from the April 2024 pullback—but the sell-off this time was much sharper.
Then came the spark:
A late-day tariff tweet from President Trump sent the market soaring on April 9—one of the biggest up days in history.
💬 “Massive tariff changes coming. America first.”
Instantly, traders bought the dip… and then some.
But here’s the thing: history warns us not to trust these monster up days in isolation. The 2008 financial crisis gave us several such rallies—yet the market still fell further.
And now, there’s buzz:
🧐 Talk of a possible SEC inquiry into suspicious options activity just before the tariff announcement is gaining steam. If true, it raises questions about insider trading ahead of a high-volatility news cycle.
#SECWatch #MarketIntegrity
⸻
Technical Breakdown
• The 20-day MA is falling—currently around 5540. Expect resistance there.
• The 200-day MA near 5750 is also sloping down.
• A breakout above 5800 would be technically bullish and force a reassessment.
Until then, this remains a classic oversold rally within a bearish trend.
🔄 #TechnicalLevels #MarketWatch
⸻
Sentiment Snapshot
• Equity-only put-call ratios just hit new relative highs = active sell signals.
• Weighted ratio rolled over for a day, but no confirmed buy yet.
• Breadth? Still terrible. One 90% up day isn’t enough to turn it around.
#BreadthIndicators #ContrarianSignal
⸻
Volatility Update
• $VIX soared above 60 on April 7 and stayed elevated = confirmed spike peak buy signal (valid for 22 trading days).
• But the longer-term $VIX trend remains bearish, and won’t flip unless $VIX drops below 19.50 for two consecutive closes.
⚠️ #Volatility #VIX
⸻
Bottom Line:
The bear case remains intact—but it’s being tested.
• ✅ Only one confirmed buy signal ($VIX spike).
• 🔁 Roll deep ITM options for credits.
• ⛔ Don’t chase the rip—wait for breadth + sentiment confirmation.
• 🧠 Keep an eye on regulatory chatter—the story may not be over yet.
⸻
#SP500 #MacroView #MarketUpdate #OptionsStrategy #VolatilitySpike #TrumpTariffs #SECInquiry #RiskRadar #InvestmentStrategy #FinancialMarkets #TechnicalAnalysis
by Mahesh Kalbhor | Apr 6, 2025 | Weekly Update
This past week marked the sharpest market drop since 2020 — with 📉 Thursday’s plunge quickly eclipsed by an even deeper Friday selloff. The result? A monstrous weekly loss that’s left indexes in freefall. We are in full-blown bearish mode, and while a retracement may be due, momentum looks uncertain. Implied volatility is spiking ⚠️, and option prices are hitting highs not seen in years.
📉 TECHNICALS UNDER PRESSURE
What started as a mediocre, oversold rally got rejected at the declining 20-day moving average — with the 200-day MA lurking nearby like a wall of resistance. $SPX flirted with support near 5500, but that bounce quickly reversed.
🚨 THE TRIGGER: TRUMP TARIFFS
In just 36 hours following President Trump’s tariff announcement, $SPX futures dropped by 530 points. The message was loud and clear: Even expected policy moves can cause unexpected damage when confidence is fragile.
🔻 LOWER HIGHS & LOWER LOWS EMERGE
$SPX now shows a clear pattern of lower highs and lower lows (see chart 📊 Figure 1) — a textbook downtrend. Too early to call a full bear market, but the structure is bearish enough to justify holding core short positions. A reversal would require reclaiming 5700–5800 — a tough ask after last week’s price action.
⚠️ OVERSOLD ≠ BUY SIGNAL
Equity-only put-call ratios are surging, eliminating any near-term buy signals. Breadth is collapsing — April 4 may clock in as a 90% down day. Oversold oscillators alone won’t cut it. We need sustained breadth improvement before we act.
🔥 VOLATILITY IS BACK
Both realized and implied volatility are soaring. $VIX is finally reacting (see chart 📊 Figure 4), and $VIX futures are heavily discounted — setting up a classic $VIX/SPY call hedge. A “spike peak” buy signal in $VIX could form soon… but we’re not there yet.
Meanwhile, the calendar isn’t slowing down. Key economic data rolls in this week 📊, including consumer health reports, inflation metrics, and the FOMC minutes. Several Fed speakers are also lined up, and just to raise the stakes — earnings season is right around the corner 💼. Expect more volatility.
Now is the time to protect your portfolio:
✅ Consider collars
✅ Don’t dismiss cash — it’s a position many would prefer right now
Stay disciplined, stay defensive, and stay safe.
⸻
🗓️ Key Economic Events:
• Apr 7: Consumer Credit
• Apr 9: Wholesale Inventories, 📝 FOMC Minutes
• Apr 10: 🧾 Jobless Claims, 📈 Consumer Price Index, 🏛️ Federal Budget
• Apr 11: 🏭 Producer Price Index, 🧠 Consumer Sentiment
🎯 STRATEGY MOVING FORWARD
• Maintain bearish core positions
• Avoid premature bottom fishing
• Watch for confirmed signals before re-risking
Expensive puts = limited roll credits… but risk management still takes priority.
⸻
BOTTOM LINE:
This isn’t a dip — it’s a drop. And until the market gives us a reason to believe otherwise, the best position is a defensive one.
⸻
#Markets #S&P500 #Volatility #HedgeFundInsights #OptionsTrading #SPX #VIX #BearMarket #MarketAnalysis #TechnicalAnalysis #TrumpTariffs #InvestorUpdate #FinanceNewsletter #PutCallRatio #Breadth #RiskManagement
by Mahesh Kalbhor | Mar 31, 2025 | Weekly Update
📉 Market Update: Analyzing the Recent $SPX Rally & Weekly Market Recap 📊
The recent rally in the S&P 500 ($SPX) appears to be a typical oversold bounce rather than indicative of strong bullish momentum. Here’s why:
🔹 Technical Resistance:
$SPX rallied to its declining 20-day moving average, briefly surpassing it but quickly retreating—a classic sign of an oversold rally.
This resistance is further strengthened by the coinciding 200-day moving average, forming a substantial barrier just under 5800.
🔹 Support Levels to Watch:
📌 The gap at 5650 was filled today but didn’t hold support.
📌 Key support zone at 5500-5540, marking earlier monthly lows.
📌 Strong support lies at 5400, matching lows from September last year.
📌 Weekly Market Recap:
Major indexes plunged significantly on Friday, notably with Nasdaq falling over 400 points.
The drop confirmed a bearish close for the week, dragging all three major indexes below their critical 200-day moving averages again.
Investors should remain cautious or neutral until these indexes reclaim and sustain positions above these crucial moving averages.
🔹 Market Sentiment & Indicators:
⚖️ Equity-only Put-Call Ratios: Mixed signals; weighted ratio indicated a tentative buy, yet standard ratio withheld confirmation.
🌐 Market Breadth: Weakened slightly this week, yet not enough to negate existing buy signals, with NYSE breadth notably outperforming stocks-only breadth.
📈 Volatility ($VIX): Mixed indicators remain; the “spike peak” buy signal from March 12 continues with adjusted stops, but overall volatility suggests caution.
🚨 Option Prices & Volatility: Friday’s sell-off caused implied volatility and option prices to rise notably, although they remain below recent highs.
📅 Economic Reports & Events (Week of April 1):
🏗️ Apr 1: Construction Spending
🔍 Apr 1: JOLTS
🛠️ Apr 2: Factory Orders
📊 Apr 3: Jobless Claims
🌐 Apr 3: Trade Deficit
📈 Apr 4: March Unemployment Report
💬 Additionally, several Federal Reserve members, including Chairman Powell, will speak this week, potentially driving further volatility.
⚠️ Conclusion & Outlook:
Given the intensity of oversold conditions previously, the recent rally was surprisingly weak, reaffirming a bearish or neutral outlook. Watch carefully for $SPX movements around the critical support of 5500. A cautious approach remains prudent; remember that holding cash is also a strategic position.
🔔 Stay cautious, keep your trading plans prepared, and manage risks proactively. 📌
#MarketAnalysis #SPX #StockMarket #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingStrategies #MarketVolatility #InvestingInsights #EconomicReports #FinancialPlanning #RiskManagement
