The current market landscape paints a picture of optimism as major indices soar to new all-time highs with remarkable frequency. Among these indices, $SPX, $NDX, and the Dow stand out, affirming our steadfast “core” bullish stance. Despite the notable performance, concerns linger, notably the lagging performance of small-caps ($RUT; IWM) in keeping stride with the broader market rally. However, until these concerns materialize into definitive sell signals, they fail to sway our bullish sentiment.

$SPX finds support at 4850, with additional reinforcement at 4800. Technically, robust support rests at 4600, but a market downturn of such magnitude would undoubtedly reshape the overall market sentiment.

Market breadth remains lackluster despite the record-breaking highs of $SPX and other indices. This disparity underscores the limited bullish breadth beyond $SPX. Sell signals persist within breadth oscillators, persisting even as $SPX surpasses the 5000 mark.

$VIX maintains its low levels, yet another sign of overbought conditions. However, unless $VIX initiates an upward trajectory, its current state poses no threat to the stock market. The $VIX buy signal trend remains intact, standing firm until $VIX surpasses its 200-day Moving Average, currently at about 15.15.

Thus, our “core” bullish position endures, supplemented by prudent trades based on confirmed signals. As the market advances, we roll deeply in-the-money calls upwards, capitalizing on the upward momentum. Despite the historically negative seasonality of February, the market’s resilience remains evident. Nevertheless, should the tides turn, we stand prepared to adapt our strategy accordingly.

Once again, stocks and the market surged higher fueled by prevailing optimism, keeping sellers at bay. The S&P 500 breached the 5,000 milestone for the first time last Friday, poised to extend its gains this week. While the Dow slightly trailed behind Nasdaq and the S&P 500, the overall sentiment remains bullish, suggesting a reluctance for the market to decline. Implied volatility levels and option prices continue to decline as the market climbs.

While quarterly earnings are tapering off, the upcoming weeks will witness several retailers unveiling their performances. Economic reports on the horizon include updates on retail sales, CPI, and PPI figures. It’s crucial to allocate time for reviewing trades and refining trading strategies without excuses.

Wishing everyone a safe, healthy, and happy Valentine’s Day and week ahead! Here’s the schedule for upcoming economic reports:
– Feb 13: CPI
– Feb 15: Jobless Claims
– Feb 15: Import Price Index
– Feb 15: Retail Sales
– Feb 15: Production and Utilization
– Feb 16: Housing Starts
– Feb 16: PPI
– Feb 16: Consumer Sentiment

Here are some trade ideas this week:

– SPY: There’s no need to alter our approach when vertical debits, credits, and calendars have been performing exceptionally well. Anticipate similar trade strategies focusing on the ETF.

– NVDA: We’ve witnessed success with several bullish bull call spreads on this strong performer in recent weeks, prompting us to explore more opportunities in that direction.

– NFLX: Following its upward gap on earnings, NFLX has maintained a narrow trading range. We’ll delve into additional iron condors between support and resistance levels to capitalize on its stability.

Spread the love