This week, prices decreased as a result of the unsuccessful upside breakout in February. Prices have fallen below the apex of the blue triangle and volatility is decreasing, particularly on a closing basis. Support is found at 3930-3940, 3900, and 3760-3860. Minor resistance is at 4020, with significant resistance at 4080-4200 and additional resistance at 4300. The modified Bollinger Bands are contracting inward due to the slowdown in volatility. The Volatility Band sell signal is still in effect since the $SPX has not yet touched the -4 Band. Equity-only put-call ratio sell signals are negative, particularly the weighted ratio. New 52-week Highs vs. New Lows on the NYSE are positive, but the NASDAQ and “stocks only” data are showing more new lows than highs std dev daily. The $VIX “spike peak” buy signal has been confirmed after five trading days, and the trend of the $VIX buy signal is still in place as long as it closes below its 200-day Moving Average. The construct of volatility derivatives is somewhat bullish for stocks. While both bulls and bears are trying to convince everyone that the market is headed their way, we are maintaining our “core” bearish position due to the false upside breakout on the $SPX chart and the sell signals from the equity-only put-call ratios but will trade other confirmed signals around that “core” position.

Trade safe ..!!

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